The New York Times reported today that a bomb in a crowded Sadr City market killed at least 60 Iraqis last night. It was, according to the Times, the third bomb in two weeks to cause double-digit casualties in the Shiite areas. The portent of these bombings, as well as recent activity in Falluja — the former hotbed that has been quiet for over a year — is that the American "troop surge" was only successful in as much as it put "cops on every corner." Now that those surge troops are drawing down, and coalition forces are scaling down tactical operations altogether, it is becoming clear that the surge did not rid Iraq of its destabilizing elements — it merely forced them into hiding. They're much less afraid of Iraqi security forces, who share similar equipment and do not benefit from the immense tactical and logistical superiority possessed by the Americans. In the coming weeks, as the Americans begin to pull out of population centers, we will see that the relative calm of the surge years — when there was a cop on every corner — gave us and the Iraqis a false sense of security.
As Alissa Rubin writes, "The bombing on Wednesday occurred just six days before the American forces officially withdraw from Iraqi cities, towns and villages, as required under the Iraqi-American security agreement. In Baghdad, many of the troops have already withdrawn, and whatever preventive effect they had may well be fast evaporating. In their absence, insurgent groups appear to be beginning to test the security system now run almost wholly by Iraqis."
It may be the case that the period of relative calm that resulted from the surge afforded Iraqi security forces the time to hone their skills under their foreign instructors and gain critical real-world training. It may be the case that Iraqi security forces will be able to maintain stability in Iraq even amidst isolated bombings and attacks by destabilizing elements.
Just because "insurgent groups appear to be beginning to test the security system now run almost wholly by Iraqis" doesn't mean that they are capable of causing that security system to fail. But it's going to be a bloody examination. Whether the Iraqi security system passes or fails may not matter politically to those Iraqis who have to suffer through the test.
As Alissa Rubin writes, "The bombing on Wednesday occurred just six days before the American forces officially withdraw from Iraqi cities, towns and villages, as required under the Iraqi-American security agreement. In Baghdad, many of the troops have already withdrawn, and whatever preventive effect they had may well be fast evaporating. In their absence, insurgent groups appear to be beginning to test the security system now run almost wholly by Iraqis."
It may be the case that the period of relative calm that resulted from the surge afforded Iraqi security forces the time to hone their skills under their foreign instructors and gain critical real-world training. It may be the case that Iraqi security forces will be able to maintain stability in Iraq even amidst isolated bombings and attacks by destabilizing elements.
Just because "insurgent groups appear to be beginning to test the security system now run almost wholly by Iraqis" doesn't mean that they are capable of causing that security system to fail. But it's going to be a bloody examination. Whether the Iraqi security system passes or fails may not matter politically to those Iraqis who have to suffer through the test.
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